I have been having trouble getting my head around this article in the New Scientist: Power paradox: Clean might not be green forever (H/T WSJ TechEurope). Basically, what they're saying is that the waste heat from all the energy we use will cause warming itself. The thesis is that all energy production and use give off some heat as waste. I have no problem with this; its true, but it is so small as a part of the total heat that the earth takes in from the sun and radiates away into space that we don't contemplate it.
The article says that if we forever generate more energy - so long as it is external from the solar energy that the Sun sends us, like nuclear fusion or fission or fossil fuels - then that waste heat will eventually cause global warming on its own, regardless of greenhouse gas emissions. Again – this is true, but so far in the future that its really not worth contemplating. In the science fiction world that this article is creating, it claims we could have access to almost limitless energy (they posit a world that uses 5000 Terwatts per year; we use 16 TW now).
My problem is that this is so far beyond any reasonable time horizon that it's not worth contemplating or planning for. If humanity is able to generate more than 300 times as much energy as we use now, then we'll also have limitless energy to build the giant mirrors to reflect some sunlight away or some such geoengineering scheme.
To compare - if, say scientists in Edinburgh in the 1750s had determined that all the coal they were burning was going to cause global warming in the first half of the 20th Century - 250 years ahead - would they have planned for that? I don't think so. Let's focus on the problems of today: energy security, economic instability, and environmental sustainability. We'll let our great-great-great-great grandchildren deal with these consequences.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Keystone To Be Rejected
- Cross Posted from ASP's Flashpoint Blog -
It looks like the the long saga of the Keystone XL pipeline is finally going to come to a close, as the Washington Post reports that "The Obama administration will announce this afternoon it is rejecting a Canadian firm’s application for a permit to build and operate a massive oil pipeline across the U.S.-Canada border."
I have written previously on this blog, in a very long post, that the Keystone XL Pipeline was simply not necessary for America's energy security. The very real environmental costs, including increased greenhouse gas emissions and substantial environmental degradation in northern Alberta, are not worth the questionable benefits to American security, especially given that much of the imported Canadian oil would simply be re-exported due to changes in America's refining capacity.
On the cynical side, some will see this as a move that will help the President shore-up his support among environmentalists. Certainly, the protests in November that surrounded the White House with activists opposing the pipeline showed that the environmental movement was able to put some political weight behind its opposition.
However, I think there is a case to be made that this is about more than simply naked political calculation. Instead, this should be seen as a decision that is part of a larger strategic move away from oil. This administration has supported alternatives to oil, including next-generation biofuels and electrified cars, as well as pursuing efforts to reduce demand for oil by increasing fuel economy standards for American autos.
Although largely unremarked upon, I think that 2011 will go down as the most significant year for America's energy security since 1991, when the fall of the Soviet Union and the invasion of Iraq combined to secure new sources of oil that would help fuel the substantial global economic growth of those two decades (you can read more about why I think 1991 was so important in my article published in The Atlantic, "Race Around the World, The 20-Year Contest for Oil").
2011 was so important because it saw real course changes on both the supply-side and the demand side of energy. We are seeing new energy production within the Continental U.S. - whether from shale gas, oil from the Bakken field, or the world-leading increase in alternative energy. We are also seeing new policies that will increase energy efficiency and reduce energy demand - like the new rule that will double America's fuel economy by 2025 and the move toward green buildings.
President Obama will have the opportunity to place the canceling of the Keystone XL pipeline within this context at next week's State of the Union address. If he doesn't mention energy - something he skipped last year - it will be a missed opportunity.
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Reflections on Two Days in Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh-
After two days in Detroit, Ecologic's group made the 5 hour drive across Ohio to Pittsburgh. Below is a lengthy interpretation of what we saw there. I'm going to try to separate these into a few shorter pieces that could be pulled into an article.
We arrived in the Sheraton Station Square hotel to a vista of a city transformed. As I arrived in my hotel room, I pulled open my drapes to see the skyline of downtown Pittsburgh. It featured a beautiful mix of early 20th century skyscrapers, mid 1980s glass fronted corporate headquarters, and a few modern LEED- certified towers. Viewed from across the Monongahela river, this was a very different feeling than Detroit. This is not a city where the residents claim a small victory when a downtown skyscraper is merely re-lit at night, never mind filled. But, with that same view came a reminder of Pittsburgh's roots. As I tried to fall asleep, coal trains of up to a mile long rumbled by directly under my window.
We would learn the next day that the view we saw of Pittsburgh was of a reincarnated city. Whereas Detroit had reached its nadir in 2009 (or, we hope that Detroit has hit bottom- only time will tell), Pittsburgh's industrial collapse happened in the 1970s and early 1980s.
I don't know the full story, but from what were told, a labor conflict at the steel mills over how to re-tool the mills to better compete with more efficient competitors, both foreign and domestic. Labor saw that this more efficient method would result in fewer jobs, so they went on strike- and that strike led directly to the closure of almost every steel mill in the area. In a flash, over 100,000 people, about 10% of the workforce, were out of a job. There was nothing else for them to do, so they left. The reason that Steelers games around the country are always so full is that an entire generation left Pittsburgh, but they didn't loose their affection for the black and gold.
After two days in Detroit, Ecologic's group made the 5 hour drive across Ohio to Pittsburgh. Below is a lengthy interpretation of what we saw there. I'm going to try to separate these into a few shorter pieces that could be pulled into an article.
We arrived in the Sheraton Station Square hotel to a vista of a city transformed. As I arrived in my hotel room, I pulled open my drapes to see the skyline of downtown Pittsburgh. It featured a beautiful mix of early 20th century skyscrapers, mid 1980s glass fronted corporate headquarters, and a few modern LEED- certified towers. Viewed from across the Monongahela river, this was a very different feeling than Detroit. This is not a city where the residents claim a small victory when a downtown skyscraper is merely re-lit at night, never mind filled. But, with that same view came a reminder of Pittsburgh's roots. As I tried to fall asleep, coal trains of up to a mile long rumbled by directly under my window.
We would learn the next day that the view we saw of Pittsburgh was of a reincarnated city. Whereas Detroit had reached its nadir in 2009 (or, we hope that Detroit has hit bottom- only time will tell), Pittsburgh's industrial collapse happened in the 1970s and early 1980s.
 |
| Three Rivers at Night |
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Reflections on Two Days in Detroit
Detroit-
I've spent the last 2 days on a comprehensive tour of Detroit, focusing on how to revive decaying industrial towns. I'm going to quickly write down my quick impressions and thoughts while they're fresh. I'm not pretending these ideas are new, nor are they unique. The story has been told by others.
Detroit has been decaying for decades. It is clear that it has become a 'hollowed out' city. Whereas the City of Detroit once held around 2 million people in its heyday- the 1950s- today there are less than 750,000. While this pattern is familiar in inner cities around the country, there's nowhere I've seen that has had a worse time of it than downtown Detroit. This depopulation has been accompanied by a de-industrialization that means there's no jobs downtown. Whereas cities like New York or Washington DC retained the jobs downtown, even as the middle class fled to the suburbs, Detroit lost its jobs as well as its people.
Of course, many rustbelt cities felt the same loss of heavy industry, but Detroit's seems worse because it was accompanied by poor planning decisions and a counterproductive rivalry between the suburbs and thew inner city.
Longstanding racial issues mean that decisions like Chrysler's move from downtown Detroit to Auburn Hills, 30 miles outside of town, take on more significance than just a business decision. Likewise, it would make sense to rationalize the bus systems by merging the City of Detroit system with the SMART bus system which serves the suburbs and the central city, but decades of grievances and bureaucratic inertia seem to have conspired against any rational action. There seem to be many more examples.
4 years ago, in 2008, these problems all came to a denouement with the collapse of the big 3 car companies: GM, Ford, and Chrysler. Although they all survive, and Ford never went into bankruptcy, all three faced a similarly impossible business environment. Their profitable models, large trucks and SUVs- the only autos which they had a clear advantage over imports- became unattractive to American consumers as gas prices shot past $4 per gallon in the early part of 2008. Then, the credit crisis destroyed the remaining spending power, and total vehicle sales in the US dropped below 10 million per year. Downtown detroit had already been decimated, but this dealt a blow to the whole region.
Today, 3 years after the CEOs of Ford, Chrysler, and GM had to drive to Washington to ask for a bail-out, the industry seems in better shape, but it remains unclear if it is sustainable in its current shape over the long term. It does seem, however, that Detroit itself has learned a lesson. A combination of investors, foundations, and individuals are trying to pull Detroit out of its tailspin. The evidence I've seen is promising.
As I wrote in a blog post yesterday, Quicken Loans is trying to remake downtown Detroit, along Woodward Street into the main street that it should be. Right now, it is characterized by empty storefronts, vacant lots, and decrepit buildings. But- that means they are cheap.Bedrock Real Estate, a venture spearheaded by Quicken's owner Dan Gilbert, is buying up everything it can fronting Woodward. This will give them the ability to remake the street into their own image. They claim to want 'characteristically Detroit' businesses to move in. And, because they will own the property, they'll have the ability to pick and choose. This model for urban redevelopment is more sustainable than government-led development because they can follow a single vision instead of dealing with the problems of any government.
In Midtown Detroit, a different set of actors are pushing redevelopment. Here, a couple of miles further up Woodward, the development is being spearheaded from a combination of charitable foundations, cultural institutions, and non-profit business incubators. Using Wayne State University as an anchor, they have pushed a style of development that looks likely to yield a more 'funky' atmosphere than downtown. This area has more of a feeling of Williamsburg, Brooklyn to Downtown's Times Square feel. Non profits like Tech Town and the Green Garage are succeeding in helping entrepreneurs start new companies while the Midtown Corporation is trying to seed a new cultural district. They've successfully filled the available housing and retail options, but they're still left with many vacant lots. Unlike elsewhere in Detroit, where old buildings can be repurposed, much of midtown will require new growth in order to fill-in the rest of the district.
Unfortunately, the coming successes of theses areas is not a model that can be replicated across the entire city. There is simply never going to be enough people to fill the city. The truth is that Detroit was built in the 1950s as the city built by cars, and built for cars. Unlike the old pre-industrial towns like Philadelphia, Baltimore, or San Francisco, there was never the density of a vibrant urban core to fall back on. Detroit was built so that every factory worker could be paid enough to buy his own car, and ultimately his own house, with a yard. But, when the jobs went away then people started to leave, and started a downward cycle. It drove down home values, down to the point where a house in much of Detroit, only miles fromWoodward Street, is worth more as scrap than as a place to live.
We drove through an area near eastern market, and it was unbelievable. Mixed in with boarded-up houses and burned-out shells there were isolated houses standing alone. They didn't exist in pockets- instead, they were seemingly random as to which houses would remain, and which would be ground into the dust of the encroaching urban prairie. You cannot believe that this was once a great American city.
I've spent the last 2 days on a comprehensive tour of Detroit, focusing on how to revive decaying industrial towns. I'm going to quickly write down my quick impressions and thoughts while they're fresh. I'm not pretending these ideas are new, nor are they unique. The story has been told by others.
 |
| The abandoned Detroit Train Station |
Of course, many rustbelt cities felt the same loss of heavy industry, but Detroit's seems worse because it was accompanied by poor planning decisions and a counterproductive rivalry between the suburbs and thew inner city.
Longstanding racial issues mean that decisions like Chrysler's move from downtown Detroit to Auburn Hills, 30 miles outside of town, take on more significance than just a business decision. Likewise, it would make sense to rationalize the bus systems by merging the City of Detroit system with the SMART bus system which serves the suburbs and the central city, but decades of grievances and bureaucratic inertia seem to have conspired against any rational action. There seem to be many more examples.
4 years ago, in 2008, these problems all came to a denouement with the collapse of the big 3 car companies: GM, Ford, and Chrysler. Although they all survive, and Ford never went into bankruptcy, all three faced a similarly impossible business environment. Their profitable models, large trucks and SUVs- the only autos which they had a clear advantage over imports- became unattractive to American consumers as gas prices shot past $4 per gallon in the early part of 2008. Then, the credit crisis destroyed the remaining spending power, and total vehicle sales in the US dropped below 10 million per year. Downtown detroit had already been decimated, but this dealt a blow to the whole region.
Today, 3 years after the CEOs of Ford, Chrysler, and GM had to drive to Washington to ask for a bail-out, the industry seems in better shape, but it remains unclear if it is sustainable in its current shape over the long term. It does seem, however, that Detroit itself has learned a lesson. A combination of investors, foundations, and individuals are trying to pull Detroit out of its tailspin. The evidence I've seen is promising.
As I wrote in a blog post yesterday, Quicken Loans is trying to remake downtown Detroit, along Woodward Street into the main street that it should be. Right now, it is characterized by empty storefronts, vacant lots, and decrepit buildings. But- that means they are cheap.Bedrock Real Estate, a venture spearheaded by Quicken's owner Dan Gilbert, is buying up everything it can fronting Woodward. This will give them the ability to remake the street into their own image. They claim to want 'characteristically Detroit' businesses to move in. And, because they will own the property, they'll have the ability to pick and choose. This model for urban redevelopment is more sustainable than government-led development because they can follow a single vision instead of dealing with the problems of any government.
In Midtown Detroit, a different set of actors are pushing redevelopment. Here, a couple of miles further up Woodward, the development is being spearheaded from a combination of charitable foundations, cultural institutions, and non-profit business incubators. Using Wayne State University as an anchor, they have pushed a style of development that looks likely to yield a more 'funky' atmosphere than downtown. This area has more of a feeling of Williamsburg, Brooklyn to Downtown's Times Square feel. Non profits like Tech Town and the Green Garage are succeeding in helping entrepreneurs start new companies while the Midtown Corporation is trying to seed a new cultural district. They've successfully filled the available housing and retail options, but they're still left with many vacant lots. Unlike elsewhere in Detroit, where old buildings can be repurposed, much of midtown will require new growth in order to fill-in the rest of the district.
Unfortunately, the coming successes of theses areas is not a model that can be replicated across the entire city. There is simply never going to be enough people to fill the city. The truth is that Detroit was built in the 1950s as the city built by cars, and built for cars. Unlike the old pre-industrial towns like Philadelphia, Baltimore, or San Francisco, there was never the density of a vibrant urban core to fall back on. Detroit was built so that every factory worker could be paid enough to buy his own car, and ultimately his own house, with a yard. But, when the jobs went away then people started to leave, and started a downward cycle. It drove down home values, down to the point where a house in much of Detroit, only miles fromWoodward Street, is worth more as scrap than as a place to live.
We drove through an area near eastern market, and it was unbelievable. Mixed in with boarded-up houses and burned-out shells there were isolated houses standing alone. They didn't exist in pockets- instead, they were seemingly random as to which houses would remain, and which would be ground into the dust of the encroaching urban prairie. You cannot believe that this was once a great American city.
Monday, January 9, 2012
Quicken Loans Vision for Downtown Detroit
A quick post from the road in Detroit.
The ambition of Quicken Loans to revitalize downtown Detroit is unbelievable. They want to remake downtown Into their own image. They've bought up half of the buildings already, and they're going to buy any more they can get. Some of them are going to be used to house the company's employees. But many others are going to be used as something outside Quicken's core business. In their 'Madison' building, they're creating an incubator for small tech startups. The model is clearly to be 'cool'. And - the 'brain' economy wants to live downtown. And there's nothing more urban and gritty than downtown Detroit.
Dan Gilbert is the CEO of Quicken, and this is clearly his vision. He thinks that Woodward Street can become "Webward" street. The picture below is looking up Woodward street from their headquarters.
The ambition of Quicken Loans to revitalize downtown Detroit is unbelievable. They want to remake downtown Into their own image. They've bought up half of the buildings already, and they're going to buy any more they can get. Some of them are going to be used to house the company's employees. But many others are going to be used as something outside Quicken's core business. In their 'Madison' building, they're creating an incubator for small tech startups. The model is clearly to be 'cool'. And - the 'brain' economy wants to live downtown. And there's nothing more urban and gritty than downtown Detroit.
Dan Gilbert is the CEO of Quicken, and this is clearly his vision. He thinks that Woodward Street can become "Webward" street. The picture below is looking up Woodward street from their headquarters.
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